The national benchmark price hit its peak in 2023 in June, reaching $760,600, before embarking on a downward trend for the next five months according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Most major markets have been following suit, with Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, and Winnipeg all seeing prices drop off since summer. This is partly due to seasonality, with sales activity typically slowing down in the colder months, but is also a result of borrowing costs becoming increasingly high.

Despite that, motivated buyers considering entering the market now may find that prices are more in line with their budget compared to the hot spring and summer markets. So which cities are experiencing the largest price drops since the summer? To find out, Zoocasa analyzed benchmark price data for 21 major markets across Canada and compared how prices have changed in the past few months and year. 

Just 3 Out of 21 Markets Have Experienced a Price Increase Since June

In the span of just 5 months, the majority of Canadian real estate markets have experienced a drop in benchmark price by more than 3%. Some markets are even falling below last year’s prices. Kitchener-Waterloo experienced the most drastic decline, with the benchmark price decreasing by 8.9% since June to $708,600 and by 0.6% since last year.  

Ontario cities in particular have seen a change in affordability. London & St. Thomas, Greater Toronto and Hamilton-Burlington’s benchmark prices all fell by more than 7% since June, with the benchmark price in Hamilton-Burlington also down 2.5% from November 2022. The benchmark price in Guelph & District dropped by 6.6% since June and 2% since 2022, with its November benchmark dropping below $800,000 for the first time since January 2023. As demand has fallen off in these Ontario markets, prices have been able to stabilize closer to pre-pandemic levels.

The only three markets to not experience a price decline since June are Calgary, St. John’s and Saint John. Calgary’s home prices have increased by 10.5% since November 2022 – more than any other market we analyzed – but still remains relatively affordable with a benchmark price of $557,400 in November 2023. As long as migration to Calgary remains strong, housing demand will continue to grow propping up prices. 

Significant Slide in Ontario Single-Family Home Prices

The seven cities experiencing the largest percentage drops in benchmark prices for single-family homes are all in Ontario. Once again Kitchener-Waterloo experienced the greatest price decline with the benchmark price of a single-family home decreasing by 9.7% since June 2023 to $802,900. Following that, single-family homes in Hamilton-Burlington have seen an 8.5% price drop since June, with November’s benchmark price falling to $864,200, marking a 2.2% decrease from 2022 levels. 

Though price declines have been more prominent in Ontario, buyers across the country still have opportunities to capitalize on less significant price drops in more affordable markets, where homeownership costs are already more within an accessible range. Single-family homes in Regina experienced the greatest year-over-year drop in price at 3.2%, and since June prices have fallen by 4.3% to a benchmark price of $321,400 in November 2023. Winnipeg and Halifax-Dartmouth single-family home prices fell by more than 4.5% since June, both with benchmark prices below $520,000, while Edmonton also saw a modest drop from June at 1.8%. 

Less Significant Price Drops for Condos

Demand for more affordable property types remained steady in 2023, especially as many buyers were forced to grapple with higher interest rates. Consequently, this led to condo prices not experiencing as significant a drop as those of single-family homes.

Fortunately for condo buyers in Ontario, Kitchener-Waterloo, Greater Toronto, and London & St. Thomas all experienced a more than 4% drop in the benchmark condo price since June. Kitchener-Waterloo condo prices are down 5.2% from 2022, more than any other city we analyzed, while Greater Toronto and London & St. Thomas condo prices are down year-over-year by 0.7% and 3.8% respectively. 

Compared to single-family home prices, where just three cities experienced price growth in the past five months, condo prices grew in nine cities. Condo price growth was strongest in Saint John and St. John’s, increasing by 12.9% and 7.4% respectively since June, while Calgary and Halifax-Dartmouth experienced the greatest year-over-year price growth at 16% and 13.8% respectively.

Zoocasa (Mackenzie Scabetta, January 4, 2023)