In December 2023 and January 2024, home sales activity via Canadian MLS Systems increased by 3.7 per cent, continuing the 7.9 per cent month-over-month growth from November. Despite the fact activity has already returned to the relatively stronger months of 2023 over the spring and summer, 2024 has begun roughly 9 per cent below the 10-year average.

“Sales are up, market conditions have tightened quite a bit, and there has been anecdotal evidence of renewed competition among buyers; however, in areas where sales have shot up most over the last two months, prices are still trending lower. Taken together, these trends suggest a market starting to turn a corner but still working through the weakness of the last two years,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist.

National gains were once again spearheaded by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), along with Hamilton–Burlington, Montreal, Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and most markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe and cottage country.

The actual number of transactions (not seasonally adjusted) exceeded January 2023 figures by 22 per cent, marking the most significant year-over-year gain since May 2021. However, considering that current activity levels still fall below the average, the double-digit increase is attributed mainly to the base effect compared to January 2023, which experienced the worst start to almost any year in the past two decades.

The number of newly listed homes in January saw a 1.5 per cent increase on a month-over-month basis, although it remains close to the lowest since last June.

“The market has been showing some early signs of life over the last couple of months, probably no surprise given how much pent-up demand is out there,” said Larry Cerqua, CREA chairperson. “There’s a consensus that the market will probably look quite different this year compared to 2022 and 2023.”

Livable (Feb. 16, 2024)