Even though Toronto's housing market is in some ways softening — sales numbers have plummeted, homes are sitting on the market for longer and going for below asking — some experts are still warning would-be buyers that prices will be rising by the end of the year despite staying pretty flat in recent months.

But, even if these forecasts are wrong and sales do dip in the midst of the recession, high interest rates mean that the amount you need to afford a place will spike regardless, as shown by the latest figures from Canadian mortgage brokerage Ratehub.ca.

Analyzing last month's real estate prices across the nation along with interest and stress test rates, the company found that even though the average price of a house or condo fell slightly in Toronto between August and September, the salary a buyer would need to earn to be able to afford one surged higher.

This phenomenon was not exclusive to Toronto, either, though residents trying to own in more expensive cities are of course feeling it the hardest.

Based on numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association, Ratehub.ca found that despite prices easing, affordability is dwindling even further in markets across the country.

"Increasingly high interest rates continued to erode Canadians' ability to buy a home in September, despite the fact that home prices softened in every major market across the country," Ratehub.ca writes in a newly-released report.

"Home affordability contracted in each of the 10 cities studied between August and September... reflecting just how much of an impact changing mortgage rates — and, by extension, the mortgage stress test — have on the overall income needed to purchase the average-priced home."

With an overnight lending rate of 5 per cent, a prime rate of 7.2 per cent and an average mortgage rate of 6.33 per cent, the firm notes that most Canadians were being stress tested at 8.3 per cent at the lowest in September, which was 0.1 per cent higher than the month prior.

But, this very minimal hike managed to increase the annual income required to purchase the average home in the city, which costs $1,127,000, by $1,800.

This monthly jump was even worse in Vancouver, Victoria and Calgary, where one needed to rake in an extra $3,900, $3,100 and $2,150 a year, respectively, to be able to nab the average home even while prices decline.

Interestingly, Toronto saw the largest price decline month-over-month — of $14,000 — but only the fourth-largest change in income required. With our sky-high prices, though, you need to make more to purchase a home in Toronto than any other city surveyed, aside from Vancouver: a staggering $235,100 at current rates.

BlogTO(Becky Robertson, October 15, 2023)