Inventory levels were at historic lows in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) at the end of 2022. Prospective homebuyers and homeowners were grappling with the higher-for-longer interest rate environment, leading to a slowdown in sales and new listings. These inventory issues persisted throughout much of 2023, with headlines frequently dominated by initiatives to boost the national housing supply.

But now that the GTA market has become more balanced, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 46% in November according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), new listings have been able to catch up with demand. To find out exactly how inventory levels have changed over the course of a year, Zoocasa analyzed months of inventory and active listing data from November 2022 to November 2023. Months of inventory and the number of active listings for each region were sourced from TRREB. 

Active Listings Up by More than 40% in Most Regions of Toronto

Despite every region in Toronto experiencing a dip in active listings from September to November, overall conditions have improved from 2022 in every region and city. The City of Toronto went from 4,931 active listings in November 2022 to 6,998 active listings in November 2023 – a 42% jump. Even if active listings in the city continue to drop off month-over-month, it is unlikely that they will reach November 2022 levels anytime soon. 

Active listings in York Region were up 47% from 2022, largely driven by significant increases in Vaughan, Markham, and Richmond Hill. Durham and Peel Region both experienced over 40% increases in active listings from November 2022 to November 2023, while Halton Region was up 27.5% year-over-year. Looking at individual cities, active listings surged the most in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, Ajax, Pickering, and Milton, where active listings increased by more than 60% year-over-year. 

Months of Inventory Improved and Stabilizing

Unlike active listings, which have seen a slowdown in the past few months, months of inventory is still climbing or remaining stable across the GTA. In November 2022, every region in Toronto besides Simcoe County had under two months of inventory, while in November 2023 most regions had over two months of inventory. And from October 2023 to November 2023, every area of Toronto either maintained the same level of inventory or slightly increased. This is a good sign that overall supply has balanced out, suggesting we have overcome the worst of supply challenges. 

Months of inventory in Simcoe County leaped up from 2.4 months in 2022 to 3.6 months in 2023 – the only region of Toronto currently over three months. The City of Toronto also experienced a stark jump in inventory, rising from 1.9 months in 2022 to 2.7 months in 2023, driven by Toronto Central which currently has 3.2 months of inventory. Besides Toronto Central, few areas have inventory over three months. King and Adjala-Tosorontio are outliers with months of inventory above five months, while Georgina, Brock, and Innisfil are the only other cities above three months of inventory. 

Condo Supply Growth Outpaced Detached Supply Growth in Nearly Every Region

While every region besides Dufferin County experienced a year-over-year increase in both active detached listings and active condo listings, the rate of growth was stronger for condos than detached listings in Peel Region, City of Toronto, York Region, and Simcoe County. 

The City of Toronto experienced the largest improvement in active condo listings, increasing by 52.4% from 2,957 listings in November 2022 to 4,505 listings in November 2023. During the same period, detached listings in the city rose by 19.2% from 1,246 listings in November 2022 to 1,485 listings in November 2023. Due to high borrowing costs and relative affordability, condos have long been the hot property type in Toronto. With more listings flooding the condo market, potential buyers may benefit from a drop in condo prices as supply builds. 

York and Peel Region experienced similar rates of growth for active detached and active condo listings. Active condo listings in York Region went from 503 in 2022 to 753 in 2023, an increase of 49.7%, while active detached listings went from 1,156 in 2022 to 1,577 in 2023, an increase of 36.4%. In Peel Region, active condo listings increased by 46.5% from November 2022, while active detached listings increased by 31.6%. 

Zoocasa (Mackenzie Scibetta, December 18,2023)