The price of a Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home is expected to surge beyond initial projections this year, according to the latest Royal LePage House Price Survey, released Thursday.

Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, says that "sanity is slowly returning to the [Canadian] housing market" after a turbulent few years, and the mass resurgence of hibernating buyers has forced experts to adjust their forecasts for GTA housing, expecting higher prices than initially anticipated for the fourth quarter of 2023.

Prices in the region were down year-over-year in the first quarter of the year, the aggregate price of a home falling 11.8 per cent to $1,119,900 since Q1 2022. It's a very different picture on a quarterly basis, however, with aggregate prices climbing by 4.8 per cent since the previous quarter.

Region-wide, median prices for single-family detached homes plunged by a similar 11.9 per cent year-over-year to $1,400,200, while GTA condo prices fell 7.4 per cent to a median of $707,700 last quarter.

In Toronto proper, aggregate home prices took a 12.6 per cent year-over-year nosedive to $1,144,300 in the first quarter of 2023, a 5.3 per cent increase over the previous quarter.

Median prices for Toronto single-family detached homes dropped by 9.3 per cent to $1,654,200 in Q1 2023, while condos declined by 10.3 per cent to $705,400.

These year-over-year numbers don't really paint a complete picture, though, with both quarterly and monthly gains offering a better glimpse of the trajectory prices are on.

"The GTA housing market started off the year with more robust activity than we expected. Right out the gate, many buyers that had been sitting on the sidelines while interest rates were rising, reignited their search for a home," said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.

Yolevski states that buyers face a shortage of inventory and expects tight competition this spring, though stresses that the industry is "not seeing as many deals close tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking, like we did during the pandemic boom."

"We've also seen the number of appointments to see properties steadily increase since the start of the year, a clear indication that buyers are ready to jump back in."

Year-over-year sales in the GTA were down in the first quarter, though these figures were measured against record highs seen in the first quarter of 2022.

It's a very different picture when measured on a month-to-month basis, where sales surged by 54 per cent between January and February, and 44 per cent between February and March.

Due to the unprecedented spike in market activity, Royal LePage has revised its forecast for the aggregate price of a home in the GTA, now calling for a 7.5 per cent year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone.

"Many would-be first-time homebuyers continue to grapple with affordability challenges and difficulties qualifying for a substantial mortgage. This is keeping prices up in the rental market, as so many young buyer hopefuls have been unable to get onto the property ladder," said Yolevski.

BlogTO(Jack Landua, April 14,2023)