Toronto's real estate market may be in a months-long slump thanks to prohibitive interest rates, but despite a serious plunge in the number of sales, prices haven't been following suit — and some stakeholders are saying they are due to actually increase by the end of the year.

The experts at Royal LePage have amended their earlier prediction for the direction the market will go as we head into winter in light of perpetually low sales volumes each month, but still anticipate the average price of a home in the GTA will rise 9 per cent from what it was at the same time last year (versus the 11 per cent they had forecasted earlier).

This figure is based on the fact that prices in the region were up 4.5 per cent in the third quarter of this year compared with the third quarter of 2022, hitting $1,147,400 — an amount that was notably 2.8 per cent lower than what the typical home was selling for in the previous quarter of the year.

If the realty firm is correct, prices in the Toronto area will surge up to around $1,164,665, which marks the second-largest jump for any of the Canadian locales surveyed.

Only Calgary is set to see its average home price accelerate more — by 9.5 per cent instead of 9, but to a much lower $656,015.

Out of the cities included in this latest report, Regina is set to stay the cheapest place in which to purchase a home, with a projected price of $373,984, on average, by year's end. Next is Winnipeg at $389,880, Edmonton at $439,913 and Halifax at $501,830.

Greater Vancouver is, as usual, the most expensive, with prices expected to climb to $1,293,523 by Q4 2023, followed by Toronto at the aforementioned $1,164,665, Ottawa at $770,293 and Calgary at $656,015.

"The aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 3.6 per cent year over year to $802,900 in the third quarter of 2023. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the price decreased by 0.8 per cent, indicating that while many Canadians have adjusted to the increased cost of borrowing, elevated interest rates continue to impact activity in markets across the country," the release reads.

"While trading volumes in most regions remain sluggish, Canada's housing market is on solid footing, with pent-up demand building. We don't anticipate a material change in property prices through the remainder of the year."

Royal LePage's team adds that even with more listings available, housing stock is still "well below the level needed to keep a lid on property price increases" across Canada.

These findings contradict what competitor RE/MAX Canada said in its market forecast for the last few months of the year.

BlogTO (Becky Robertson, October 12, 2023)